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餓了么正式并購百度外賣:補貼大戰是否會繼續?

作者:陳維城) 發表時間:2017年08月25日  

  外賣“紅藍合璧”背后:阿里牽手百度?

  餓了么正式并購百度外賣,后者以獨立品牌運營,團隊不變;阿里和百度將對新平臺提供全方位支持

  


  7月20日,武漢高溫持續,送外賣的小哥喝水降溫。中新社記者 張暢 攝

  8月24日,餓了么正式宣布合并百度外賣。合并完成后,百度外賣成為餓了么的全資子公司。百度外賣仍以獨立的品牌和運營體系發展,包括管理層在內的人員架構保持不變。

  根據新京報記者了解到的情況,餓了么本定于昨日上午9點左右公布消息,卻于下午4點多才公布。根據記者拿到的餓了么CEO張旭豪給全體員工的公開信,餓了么與百度外賣達成合作后,百度外賣保持既有的品牌和組織架構獨立運營,百度外賣的團隊和人員不會發生改變。

  餓了么首席執行官張旭豪表示,百度外賣一直是餓了么非常尊敬的同行,在打造品質外賣和深耕即時配送的理念上,餓了么和百度外賣高度一致,這是雙方走到一起的首要原因。

  據了解,阿里巴巴為此次交易向餓了么提供了融資支持。百度通過換股方式也成為餓了么的股東。阿里巴巴和百度承諾,將給予新平臺在流量入口、智能技術、金融保險等領域的全方位、更大力度的支持。

  此前業界預測,百度將執行all in人工智能的戰略,盡快把屬于O2O領域的外賣業務出手。不過在持續一個月的餓了么并購靴子落地后,百度在外賣市場上并未完全出局。

  在成為餓了么的股東后,百度集團總裁兼首席運營官陸奇表示,很高興看到百度外賣與餓了么聯姻,這對雙方的消費者、員工、合作伙伴等各界來說都是非常讓人振奮的消息。陸奇表示,百度也將與各方一起持續探索,將最前沿的技術賦能商業,共同營造更廣闊的消費場景。這個表態給業界留下很多想象空間。新京報記者 馬婧 陳維城

  


  截至去年底,中國網上外賣用戶規模達到2.09億,年增長率超過80%。圖為歡歡和同事聊天。中新網記者 富宇 攝

  疑問1

  百度外賣到底賣了多少錢?

  8月24日,餓了么并沒有就并購披露此前網上傳得沸沸揚揚的具體方案。

  此前據《財經》報道,百度外賣以5億美元出售,百度打包流量入口資源給餓了么,作價3億美元,因此總共收購價格是8億美元。這8億美元中2億美元為現金,餓了么增發股份3億美元,交易完成后百度占餓了么股份5%,剩余3億美元鎖定期五年。

  互聯網分析師唐欣認為,之所以沒有公布細節,是為了避免外界過度猜測。從目前公布的信息看,除了交易價格,后續還有一些合作,交易僅僅是合作的一部分。而外界對于交易細節的評價可能會影響雙方持續合作。

  2016年9月,就曾傳出百度外賣、百度糯米與美團點評合并的傳聞,今年5月,順豐又成為了傳聞中的接盤者。據相關媒體報道,百度和順豐將按照5:5的出資比例,共同出資通過設立合資公司來運營。

  在此過程中,百度外賣的身價也在縮水。百度外賣在去年第一季度完成B輪融資,估值達到24億美金。有消息稱,美團當時出價30億美元收購,但因為百度想要把百度糯米一起打包進去,最終沒有成交。

  2016年底,順豐給百度外賣開價24億美元,但順豐想合作、不想全接過來自己做外賣,雙方傳出各自出資成立合資公司后,最后沒有傳出進一步消息。

  從餓了么對百度外賣的出價來看,目前百度外賣的估值在5億美元左右。

  對此,唐欣并不認為百度外賣是“賤賣”,他表示盡管百度外賣累積投入很大,但面臨的形勢并不樂觀,能夠買下百度外賣的潛在買家也很有限。

  外賣市場競爭的慘烈程度堪比網約車市場,和餓了么相比百度外賣無論是在融資速度還是打法上都不夠強勢。百度外賣的融資只到B輪,餓了么在F輪融資之后還有滴滴出行的戰略投資和阿里的兩輪投資。

  據了解,此次并購,資金來源是阿里巴巴,阿里巴巴集團執行副主席蔡崇信稱,阿里支持餓了么整合外賣市場,集團亦將在流量、融資等方面繼續給予新平臺大力支持。(馬婧)

  


  餓了么送餐員 資料圖。 中新社記者 劉占昆 攝

  疑問2

  外賣補貼大戰是否會繼續?

  新京報記者詢問過的多名中小商家和百度外賣騎手,都表示餓了么收購百度外賣不會對他們產生太大影響。北京的李女士是百度外賣的忠實用戶,她唯一的擔心是餓了么收購百度外賣后,會不會進一步形成行業壟斷,進而出現配送費漲價的問題。

  比達咨詢數據顯示,2017年第一季度中國第三方餐飲外賣市場交易規模達843.2億元,覆蓋用戶數逼近2億。餓了么以36.5%的市場份額領跑,美團外賣以33%市場份額緊隨其后,百度外賣以17.3%的市場份額名列第三。餓了么聯手百度外賣,二者份額之和或超過50%。

  來自Trustdata的數據卻表示,餓了么和百度外賣二者聯手恐怕也不是美團的對手。Trustdata數據顯示,今年上半年外賣市場交易額近千億,其中美團外賣占比45.2%,餓了么是36.4%,百度外賣6.3%。

  數據的差異很可能是統計方法的不同。從總體來看,拿下百度外賣的餓了么與美團基本上勢均力敵,兩家會不會為了一決勝負,展開新一輪的補貼大戰?

  對此,唐欣表示,可能性比較大的是保持目前的補貼力度。一方面,美團目前的財務狀況并不是特別充裕,已經有較長一段時間沒有新融資了。美團外賣曾宣稱外賣日訂單量超過1200萬單,以美團日訂單量1200萬算,每單補貼1.5元計算,美團一年僅外賣補貼超過54億元。

  另一方面,餓了么和百度外賣還有很多要整合的地方,這一塊就會耗費大量的時間精力,在整合完成之前,大規模增加訂單并非是很迫切的事。

  中國電子商務研究中心生活服務O2O部助理分析師陳禮騰認為,隨著外賣大戰“玩家”的減少,各平臺對于市場有更多的話語權, 除非二者再次爆發新一輪的“大戰”,否則補貼力度將逐漸降低。

  唐欣認為,大規模補貼不是市場正常狀態,但補貼少了肯定會一定程度上造成用戶流失。在外面外賣平臺將發展用戶規模,提高支付頻率,實現大的現金流作為發展重點的階段,補貼大戰在中短期內不會結束。(馬婧)

  疑問3

  通過新平臺,阿里牽手百度?

  在外賣這一戰場的激烈競爭背后,是巨頭對消費場景和流量入口的爭奪。有分析人士認為,外賣比網約車的用戶黏性和活躍度更高,對支付等其他業務的幫助也更大。哪怕不賺錢,相關企業也不會放棄這一領域。

  在餓了么宣布合并百度外賣后,百度集團總裁兼首席運營官陸奇表示,百度也將與各方一起持續探索,將最前沿的技術賦能商業,共同營造更廣闊的消費場景。阿里巴巴集團執行副主席蔡崇信稱,阿里支持餓了么整合外賣市場,集團亦將在流量、融資等方面繼續給予新平臺大力支持。

  營銷專家路勝貞認為,目前來講,百度與餓了么的合并,并不會大大增強餓了么的市場占有率,而是會獲得更多的百度的資源,例如手機定位、流量等市場占有率以外的支持,而美團一定會和騰訊加強合作在這個方面進行積極防御。

  產業觀察家洪仕斌分析,外賣市場是一個高頻的鏈接用戶的支付端口,目前的支付體系已成為基礎性建設,如同高速公路。背后的用戶數據將會二次或多次有效利用,這種生活數據的獲取是未來的競爭營銷的一大資源。

  顯然百度并不想失去這個領域,“百度也看好外賣領域,畢竟是一塊重要的支付端口,將自己不具備優勢的項目合并給有經驗的阿里系,可能還可以獲得一些資源。”洪仕斌認為。

  洪仕斌觀察,百度落后AT,肯定希望在某一領域的業務模式上與其他巨頭進行深度連接,阿里目前擁有支付體系,又有淘寶天貓平臺的生意數據,但更真實的外賣生活數據也是相當吸引人,百度目前在人工智能領域,雖然兩者現在道路不同,但最終目的是相同的。

  “未來互聯網企業的合作機會有很多,因為他們的合作的關聯度與敵友觀念沒有傳統企業來得強。”洪仕斌認為,以這次為契機,百度與阿里未來的合作契機會更廣。

  當然,也有分析人士認為,單從一次合作還不足以說明百度與阿里形成了某種聯盟。IT分析師唐欣認為,不認為是在高層次上跟阿里結盟,目前來看并非是跟阿里結盟,而只是保留了在外賣相關領域進一步合作的可能性。

 

來源: 新京報

 

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