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當前我國經濟形勢和2019年展望

作者:祝寶良 發表時間:2019年01月13日  

  不久前召開的中央經濟工作會議,深入分析當前經濟形勢,全面部署2019年經濟工作,提出了“鞏固、增強、提升、暢通”的八字方針,為我們堅定信心、深化認識,做好2019年經濟工作指航定向。2019年是新中國成立70周年,也是全面建成小康社會關鍵之年,經濟工作任務十分繁重。我們要按照中央的要求和部署,全面分析內外部環境的深刻變化,科學把握重要戰略機遇新內涵,沉著應對各種風險與挑戰,加快我國經濟高質量發展步伐,為全面建成小康社會收官打下決定性基礎。

  當前我國經濟形勢基本穩定

  2018年,面對嚴峻的國際形勢和國內艱巨的改革發展任務,我們按照高質量發展總要求、以深化供給側結構性改革為主線,打好三大攻堅戰,統籌推進穩增長、促改革、調結構、惠民生、防風險各項工作,國民經濟運行總體平穩、穩中有進。

  一是經濟基本維持在合理區間。2018年前三季度,我國國內生產總值同比增長6.7%。2018年1月至11月,規模以上工業增加值增長6.3%。物價走勢溫和適中,居民消費價格上漲2.1%。生產領域價格總體平穩,工業價格和居民消費價格剪刀差收窄。就業規模持續擴大,到2018年11月末,全國城鎮新增就業1293萬人,提前完成全年目標。全國城鎮調查失業率穩中有降,維持在5%左右。國際收支基本平衡,中美貿易摩擦對出口和外資的影響還沒有顯現。

  二是經濟結構持續優化。第三產業比重不斷提高,對經濟增長的拉動作用不斷增強。2018年前三季度,三次產業增加值占GDP的比重分別為6.5%、40.4%和53.1%,第二產業和第三產業比重分別提高0.2和0.3個百分點。消費對我國經濟增長的拉動作用進一步增強,需求結構不斷改善。雖然基建投資明顯回落,但制造業、房地產、民間投資穩定,服務消費需求旺盛,2018年前三季度,最終消費支出對GDP增長的貢獻率為78.0%,比2017年同期提高14.0個百分點。居民收入增長與經濟增長同步,城鄉居民收入差距縮小,2018年前三季度,全國居民人均可支配收入同比實際增長6.6%,與經濟增長基本同步。

  三是新增長動能有所提升。高技術產業、裝備制造業、戰略性新興產業增加值增長速度明顯高于整個規模以上工業。新能源汽車、光纖、智能電視等新產品產量保持較快增長。服務業中的戰略性新興服務業、高技術服務業營業收入快于全部規模以上服務業。與居民消費升級相關的養老、醫療、旅游休閑、文化娛樂等服務行業供給水平提高。咨詢、物流、信息、商務服務業快速發展,信息傳輸、軟件和信息技術服務業勢頭較好。

  四是經濟效益和質量有所提高。產能利用率保持穩定。2018年前三季度,全國工業產能利用率為76.6%,與2017年同期持平。規模以上工業企業實現利潤同比增長14.7%,大大高于企業銷售收入增速。杠桿率降低。2018年11月末,規模以上工業企業資產負債率為56.8%,同比下降0.4個百分點。節能降耗扎實推進,能源消費結構繼續優化,2018年前三季度,全國能源消費總量同比增長3.4%,天然氣、水電、核電、風電等清潔能源消費占能源消費總量比重比2017年同期提高1.3個百分點,單位GDP能耗同比下降3.1%。

  需要注意的是,在經濟平穩運行的同時,我國也出現了民營企業困難增加、基建投資回落過快等問題,國際經濟環境較為嚴峻,中美經貿摩擦不確定性明顯上升,經濟運行穩中有變、變中有憂。這些問題和挑戰值得引起我們高度重視。

  2019年我國宏觀調控政策取向

  針對我國經濟存在的矛盾和問題,中央經濟工作會議提出了2019年我國經濟發展目標、政策和主要工作。我們要堅持穩中求進工作總基調,堅持以供給側結構性改革為主線,堅持深化市場化改革、擴大高水平開放,著力激發微觀主體活力,創新和完善宏觀調控,統籌推進穩增長、促改革、調結構、惠民生、防風險工作,進一步穩就業、穩金融、穩外貿、穩外資、穩投資、穩預期,提振市場信心,保持經濟運行在合理區間。

  第一,宏觀政策要強化逆周期調節。繼續實施積極的財政政策和穩健的貨幣政策,適時預調微調,穩定總需求。積極的財政政策要加力提效,實施更大規模的減稅降費,較大幅度增加地方政府專項債券規模。穩健的貨幣政策要松緊適度,保持流動性合理充裕。改善貨幣政策傳導機制,提高直接融資比重,解決好民營企業和小微企業融資難融資貴問題。保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定,加強資本管制,保證我國貨幣政策的獨立性。

  第二,結構性政策要強化體制機制建設。堅持向改革要動力,深化國資國企、財稅金融、土地、市場準入、社會管理等領域改革,強化競爭政策的基礎性地位,創造公平競爭的制度環境,鼓勵中小企業加快成長。推進供給側結構性改革是結構性政策的主要抓手,2019年要在“鞏固、增強、提升、暢通”八個字上下功夫。要鞏固“三去一降一補”成果,推動更多產能過剩行業加快出清,降低全社會各類營商成本,加大基礎設施等領域補短板力度。要增強微觀主體活力,發揮企業和企業家主觀能動性,建立公平開放透明的市場規則和法治化營商環境,促進正向激勵和優勝劣汰。要提升產業鏈水平,利用技術創新和規模效應形成新的競爭優勢,培育和發展新的產業集群。要暢通國民經濟循環,形成國內市場和生產主體、經濟增長和就業擴大、金融和實體經濟良性循環。

  第三,社會政策要強化兜底保障功能。要把穩就業擺在突出位置,重點解決好高校畢業生、農民工、退役軍人等群體就業。要深化社會保障制度改革,在加快省級統籌的基礎上推進養老保險全國統籌。要構建房地產市場健康發展長效機制,堅持房子是用來住的、不是用來炒的定位,因城施策、分類指導,夯實城市政府主體責任,完善住房市場體系和住房保障體系。

  第四,防范化解重大風險。要堅持結構性去杠桿的基本思路,防范金融市場異常波動和共振,穩妥處理地方政府債務風險,做到堅定、可控、有序、適度。要以深化金融財稅改革化解金融風險。發展民營銀行和社區銀行,推動城商行、農商行、農信社業務逐步回歸本源。要完善金融基礎設施,強化監管和服務能力。要通過深化改革,打造一個規范、透明、開放、有活力、有韌性的資本市場,提高上市公司質量,完善交易制度。要健全地方稅體系,規范政府舉債融資機制。

  總體來看,2019年我國經濟發展面臨的外部環境和2018年相比更為復雜嚴峻,我們預測,投資增長速度會有所回升,消費穩中略降,出口增長速度將有所回落,價格總體穩定,工業品和消費品價格的剪刀差縮小,總體上經濟增長將有所減慢。與此同時,供給側結構性改革對穩定經濟的效應將繼續顯現,鼓勵民營企業發展和深化改革開放的信號有利于穩定企業的信心,穩就業、穩金融、穩外貿、穩外資、穩投資、穩預期的政策會逐步發揮作用。建議把2019年的經濟增長目標定為6%以上,物價控制在3%左右。

      作者單位:國家信息中心首席經濟學家

 來源:經濟日報

 

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