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5G時代的智慧供應鏈創新

作者:劉大成 發表時間:2019年01月23日  

       5G遠算不上工業革命,甚至缺乏革命性創新,更應該稱為技術改良;但5G依然有可能像互聯網、移動互聯和物聯網等技術一樣,造成資源端-生產端-消費端鏈接產業結構的大變革。

  以互聯網技術支持下的淘寶平臺為例。傳統連接生產和消費兩端的商貿/物流渠道,直接制約著生產和消費的個性化,再好的個性化創意供給和再差異化的客戶需求,也必須服從商貿/物流渠道出于低成本高效率考慮的罅隙選擇;互聯網支持的電商及物流則實現了個性化生產與差異化需求間低成本高效率精準對接且形成規模化,“無所不賣”的阿里巴巴市值已達到了4070億美元。

  移動互聯網技術則支持了第三方移動支付、手機地圖導航平臺等。微信支付/支付寶、順豐/美團外賣的高速崛起均得益于此。傳統信用卡支付需要以用戶信用為質押物,并犧牲了交易效率;微信支付和支付寶則蔑視了中國企業和個人少有的信用,以近零成本的高效率實現了供需間資金安全流動,并下沉到社會底層用戶,實現了交易全流程的數據和流程管控;第三方移動支付還以近零成本實現了資本對經營者的交易監管,催生了資本進入餐飲、公路貨運等傳統“地下黑交易”盛行的產業;手機地圖導航則以近零成本提供了生產端、消費端及商貿/物流端資源的時間維、空間維和邏輯維的多維融合,將原本差異化的時間、空間和邏輯資源低成本高效率地演化為標準化和規模化,外賣小哥/快遞小哥可以在勞動強度變化不大且技術能力要求不高的情況下收入倍增。

  大數據和云計算通過信息完整性極大提升了決策的技術含量和知識含量,低成本高效率地實現供需精準對接和場景變現。例如,亞馬遜利用AWS云服務平臺構筑了其“飛輪效應”模式,即互聯網上“羊毛出在豬身上”的供應鏈多節點可收益體系。

  物聯網則實現了互聯網之上的泛在網絡,是傳感器網及其連接之上決策支持和執行器的智能控制平臺。

  有人將人工智能稱之為第四次工業革命的核心部分,認為蒸汽機革命實現了人的體力拓展,而人工智能則實現了人的智力拓展。然而在實際應用中,由于周邊支撐技術發展緩慢,人工智能還遠未能達到人類智能的相當水平。但最近展示的未來多式聯運和倉儲操作中,無人駕駛、無人倉和全自動分揀設備,將以近零成本杜絕現有體制機制約束下央企/國企由于激勵不足而廣泛存在的末端權力尋租現象,人工智能下的物流作業/服務全自動生產計劃和全自動調度將極大地提高央企/國企的市場競爭力。

  由此可見,盡管上述互聯網等技術創新并未在一開始就展現出革命性的創新態勢,可能在技術發展中不斷地進行修正甚至背道而馳,然而,其在與資源端-生產端-消費端的供需關系和商貿/物流渠道結合上,摸索到了如何“近零成本”的替代傳統路徑,尋找到了從非標準化/規模化到標準化/規模化的轉變路徑,因此也帶動了新產業的超速發展。

  5G技術看起來也是如此,其在調制、編碼、多址、組網和超多天線等關鍵技術上,多數是以往2G-3G-4G等傳統技術的改良版,而且一個性能的提升是以犧牲另外一個性能作為代價補償的。如在正交多址接入之上提出的NOMA(非正交多址接入)實現了多個用戶的資源共享,然而卻降低了系統運行效率;組網中依然采用時分雙工和頻分雙工混合實現目標中的全雙工等;特別是基站密度要從成本考量與實際市場需求相結合。

  但5G網絡的確意味著超快傳輸速度,特別是按照人口密集區設置的微基站和大規模自適應陣列,可以低成本高效率實現視頻流媒體、虛擬現實/增強現實(VR/AR)技術、智能設備的多場景融合等,一方面支持“大云移物智”信息技術對生產、消費和商貿/物流的接口端實現柔性化、自適應和自洽能力的提升,從而具有近零成本大幅度、大范圍提升非標準化到標準化變遷的能力;另一方面,則可以基于更大數據量實時傳輸能力,深度開發消費者的嗅覺、觸覺、味覺及沉浸式漫游功能以超低成本更精準對接供/需關系且易形成規模化。

  盡管5G技術本身的革命性創新不足,但隨之演化的產業供應鏈條中可能存在的近零成本、更高效率及從非標準化接口向標準化接口演化的環節將成為撬動全社會產業構架變革的支點,也使得各行業各區域要素稟賦可以跨功能、跨時空、跨邏輯地實現資源配置優化,從智能到智慧將成為5G時代的標志。

  智慧物流分4個層級。第一代智慧物流是在各個功能內部進行資源要素配置優化,當下已經完全可以做到定量化優化,如運輸/配送的路徑優化、倉儲的庫存優化、設施規劃與布局優化,包括沃爾瑪配送中心的“交叉碼頭”、7-11倉配的“送奶線路”以及許多運輸/倉儲企業孜孜以求的“重去重回”和“結點成網”運營模式。

  第二代智慧物流則是跨功能(功能之間)進行資源要素配置優化,亞馬遜對金牌會員實施的“1小時送達”服務就是將庫存設置在金牌會員顧客身邊,利用AWS平臺精準預測顧客需求以控制成本,用“以儲代運”模式實現了對需求的即時響應;筆者在京津冀“藍天保衛戰”大背景下規劃的長治潞城現代智慧物流園則充分利用北京鐵路局管內閑置資源和可精準預測的鋼企生產周期,實現35噸敞頂箱鐘擺式班列的“以運分儲”,綜合滿足了環保需求和成本控制需要。

  第三代智慧物流應該稱之為智慧供應鏈,是通過物流與供應鏈上下游體系綜合優化,直接改變生產、消費和商貿/物流全產業鏈的產業結構,大家熟知的“坑口發電”就是智慧供應鏈應用的一種形式,可以預見,未來5G支持下的智慧供應鏈將會深度改變產業結構變革。

  第四代智慧物流則是將并行的同構/異構供應鏈間進行跨鏈要素稟賦資源配置優化,傳統單一供應鏈研究的是上下游之間不同經營主體的利益博弈及共贏,是如何縮短投入到產出之間的投資周期;并行智慧供應鏈應重點研究如何充分尋找并行供應鏈中的閑置資源,如何實現產出在投入之前的“無本萬利”。

  5G時代,智慧供應鏈創新的關鍵在于如何找到近零成本高效率實現接口非標準化到標準化/規模化的路徑。

 

      作者:清華大學互聯網產業研究院副院長、工業工程系博導

來源:經濟參考報

 

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